Blijft Modi zijn stempel drukken op India na de ‘moeder van alle verkiezingen’?
In twee delen brengt onze Indiase CIMIC-medewerker Ashok Gladston Xavier uit Chennai verslag uit over de ‘moeder van alle verkiezingen’. Hij schetst welke twee grote krachten zich met elkaar meten: de National Democratic Alliance (NDA) waartoe ook de hindoenationalistische BJP van premier Modi behoort, en de National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) met de Congress-partij als belangrijkste trekker.
De BJP was zeer optimistisch over de gang van zaken en tamelijk zegezeker sinds de inhuldiging van de Ram-tempel in Ayodhya (zie artikel in de Nieuwsbrief#49 van januari).
Maar de Congress-partij kwam intussen met een goed opgesteld manifest dat de aandacht trok van de gemeenschappen van de lagere en de middenklasse in India. Na de tweede fase van de verkiezingen in 13 deelstaten werd NDA bezorgd en begon het manifest van INDIA aan te vallen.
De speeches van de vorige premier Manmohan Singh in 2006 werden door de BJP met opzet fout geïnterpreteerd als zouden de moslims rechten krijgen ten koste van de hindoes wanneer Congress zou winnen. De cijfers werden vervalst.
Ook Arvind Kejriwal, de Chief Minister (nvdr: deelstaatpremier) van Delhi, bleek voor BJP een luis in de pels en werd gearresteerd omdat hij smeergeld zou hebben ontvangen voor een drankenlicentieovereenkomst. Door de arrestatie kan hij niet deelnemen aan de campagne en blijft hij in de gevangenis tot na de verkiezingen.
Er speelde ook nog een vervelende zaak rond obligaties. Het Hooggerechtshof had in februari deze manier van partijfinanciering door individuen en bedrijven ongrondwettelijk genoemd. Nu bleek ook nog dat de BJP het grootste deel van dat geld had ontvangen. Onderzoek wees uit dat bedrijven werden gechanteerd om te doneren, of dat ze de obligaties gebruikten om financiële problemen te verbergen.
Niettegenstaande deze weinig goeds voorspellende uitgangspositie van de regerende partij voorspelden de opiniepeilers een grote overwinning voor Modi. Het Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies betwijfelt dat. Op dinsdag 4 juni worden de officiële uitslagen bekend gemaakt.
Part 1 – The dance of Democracy – Indian National Election 2024
The world’s largest festival of democracy is taking place in India from 19th of April to 1st June 2024 in seven phases. This time India will elect 543 representatives to the parliament. The party that secures more than 273 seats will be eligible to form the government. The Party that wins will select the Prime Minister to lead the government.
The current elections are fought between two coalitions namely the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). It comprises of the Barathya Janata Party (BJP) a national level party and a number of regional parties. The opposition is called Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). With the Congress as the primary party there are 26 members from all across the country that are part of this alliance.
The BJP went in bullish to this election. They were confident to face the first phase as they had all the optics right. The prime among them was the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. This was built after demolishing the 16th century mosque claiming that the mosque was built at a temple site.
It was considered as an election promise that was delivered. The BJP’s ascent to power can be traced to its quarter century campaign to raze the mosque and build the temple.
The BJP was defending its 10 years of successful governance and added the Ram Temple as its greatest achievement. Meanwhile the Congress came up with a well drafted manifesto that pitched to draw the attention of the lower- and middle-class communities in India. The reports from the ground after the first phase of the elections that were held on April 19th in 21 states for 102 constituencies were not musical to the ears of the BJP. Since most of the 102 seats were places where the BJP was not so popular the responses were also obvious.
The manifesto of the BJP was released just a day before the phase one started, whereas the Congress’ manifesto was gaining a lot of coverage.
The second phase was held on April 26th in 13 states for 88 constituencies. The mood after the second phase was altering the initial feelings. The INDI Alliance was seeming to look positive while the NDA was looking concerned. Here the tone and tenor of the campaign changed.
The BJP started throwing heavy punches at the INDI Alliance attacking its manifesto. The Prime Minister was seen misinterpreting the speeches the 2006 of Dr Manmohan Singh, the former Prime Minister of India, where he was referring to need for the disadvantaged Muslims given the first claim to rights.
Mr. Narendra Modi took this completely out of context and started to say that if the Congress comes to power, they will give preference only to the Muslims. Further, using false data of the accelerated growth of Muslim population was used to scare the Hindus. The journalists and social scientists saw this ploy and came up with the truth. It indicated how these numbers were used to monger fear and misconceptions among the Hindus divide the already fractured communal relations in some parts of the country.
While this vile campaign was going on, Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi, was arrested on charges of receiving kickbacks from a liquor licensing deal. Though he was arrested just before the elections, the intentions were very clear to keep him behind bars throughout the elections so that he could not campaign for the elections.
Talking about the kickbacks, the government faced an embarrassing situation just before it went into the elections with the electoral bonds. These were bonds that could be purchased by individuals and companies to fund political parties. They came into existence 2017. The supreme court of India pronounced it unconstitutional and struck it down on 15 February 2024.
By now 200 000 million rupees was received by political parties. Of which BJP had received the lions share. While some parties disclosed where the money came from, the supreme court had demanded the State Bank of India to disclose the data of the donors and the recipients. The Bank came asked for three months to disclose the data citing silly reasons. The supreme court had to come down heavily on the bank to get in the data with a strict deadline. The bank had to comply.
A team of 19 journalists systematically worked on the data and brought out some revealing facts. The biggest donations obviously went to the ruling party. Many companies had bought bonds following raids by the enforcement directorate. This meant that the corporations that donated the money were either threatened by the instruments of the state to extort the money or they used the money to save themselves from financial misdeeds.
Some companies that had registered losses consistently managed to purchase these bonds for amounts far beyond their losses. In one case a poor farmer who had very little income was conned to buy these bonds citing that this would give him huge returns. This was termed as the mother of all scams.
The ruling party could not defend this in any forum. This also meant that the ruling party was going into the elections at an all-time low. But the poll pundits predicted a huge win for the ruling party. The prime minister confidently claimed that his party would win at least 400 seats in the elections.
The study by the Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, an organization that has been fairly accurate with its data was one of the few that said that the BJP will have to win only with a struggle.
At the end of 5 phases of elections the results are still unclear. The ruling party is brimming with confidence, but the incoming data suggests that they are loosing ground in many places that they had won previously.
The opposition is very confident that they have made some significant gains in places that they have previously lost. Till now the election of 2024 is anyone’s’ gamble. With low voter turnouts in many urban areas and significant voter turnouts in some states the balance is still undecided.
Ashok Gladston Xavier
Ashok Gladston Xavier is associate professor in social work at Loyola College, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Part 2 – The Indian Parliamentary election the final phase
The elections in India have come to an end. Over the last 45 days there was a lot of drama that occupied the prime time on the television and precious spaces online and on the newspapers.
Now that the elections are over the poll pundits have been busy predicting the results. From astrologers to psephologists and the media persons in between have hurriedly conducted surveys or looked at the stars and have given out their possibilities.
In the first round of exit polls was released Sunday, 2 June, that is just a day after the final phase of the elections at least seven survey organizations have predicted that they BJP will return to power with an improved vote share. They also say that the vote share of the Congress will also improve and form a substantial opposition.
The ruling party’s victory ranges from a minimum of 281 up to 400 seats. While there is a lot to question in accuracy of these results, it is important to note that some media houses have gone on an over drive and have been involving in a narrative that supports the BJP and its allies.
In one case a channel called ZEE news, the numbers were so inflated that it was much more than the seats in which the people were contested. After a lot of backlashes, they went back and changed the numbers.
The opposition parties are strongly opposing the exit polls so far and are calling it the prediction of the pets of the ruling party that have sold their souls to them. Overall, the BJP and its allies are now very confident of coming back to power. On the other hand, the Congress and its allies are also confident that they would have improved their performance and would definitely have a chance to form the government.
Unlike previous times, this time poll predictions look like mind games that are played before the results are declared. As observers there are several thoughts come to our minds.
Firstly, if the predictions are true and the current ruling party wins, the opposition will clearly blame the electronic voting machines as they have been doing from the start of the elections.
Secondly, they will also blame the rigging of the process in some places where the ruling party was not so confident in winning.
Thirdly, they will blame the election commission and the law enforcement machineries of being completely one sided and not remaining completely neutral with the election process.
Whatever the results of the elections are, this election will be decisive of the future of India that was fought across the media platforms using simple print tech to artificial intelligence. The most vitiated campaign was not only by the political parties and their official organs, but by civil society actors as well.
Then there was the drama of the political leaders including the prime minister who changed his tune according to the phase of the election.
The results of this election are expected to produce the most unprecedented outcomes since the leadership of Nehru in the mid 1960’s. It will provide a third chance to a party continuously. It will legitimize their stand on several issues that are of critical importance.
On the hand it also justifies that fact that the Indian populace trust a strong leader no matter what the party policies are. The opposition if it looses will need to maintain enough steam to steadfastly remain in the fight in the parliament as it unfolds for the next five years.
There were several players who provided the fire power on the social media platforms trying to influence their electorates. Some of the actors gained a lot of traction and were trolled a lot, despite that they kept their momentum with their campaign.
Ashok Gladston Xavier
Ashok Gladston Xavier is associate professor in social work at Loyola College, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
Eerder dit jaar publiceerden we al over India in de CIMIC-Nieuwsbrief:
De moeder van alle verkiezingen. In India bepaalt één politicus de keuze van een miljard kiezers
https://cimic-npo.org/2024/04/30/52-010
Why India’s South Rejects Modi — And Why It Matters
https://cimic-npo.org/2024/04/30/52-012/
A lot of drama over Rama
https://cimic-npo.org/2024/01/28/49-004/
Alarm for civil society in India
https://cimic-npo.org/2024/03/28/51-007/
Women-led farmer producer organisations for climate resilience in agriculture
https://cimic-npo.org/2024/03/28/51-008/
